4月2日還沒到，全球車企已經忙得腳打后腦勺了。

事情很簡單，美國那位喜歡打貿易戰的老爺子又發話了：4月2日起要對進口汽車加稅。

這下可好，歐洲亞洲的車企們連夜往美國運車，港口都快塞不下了。

先說這事的來龍去脈。

去年冬天美國給了墨西哥和加拿大30天緩刑期，眼瞅著4月2日到期。

按照慣例，這位老爺子說要收25%的關稅，那就不是開玩笑的。

車企們吃過虧，知道這老爺子說收稅是真收，一分錢都不會少。

最著急的是韓國人。

現代和起亞的運輸部門最近電話都快打爆了，到處找能運車的船。

全球最大的汽車運輸公司華輪威爾森直接說，亞洲客戶的訂單已經超出了他們的運力上限。

這話翻譯過來就是：船不夠用了，給再多錢也運不完。

德國人也是焦頭爛額。

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某家不愿意透露名字的德國車企高管私下說，他們正在加班加點往美國運車。

數據不會騙人，2月份歐盟往美國運的車比去年同期多了兩成多。

日本車也多了14%，韓國車漲了15%，活像過年趕集似的。

最有意思的是墨西哥那邊。

大眾在墨西哥的工廠開足馬力生產，一輛輛新車排著隊往美國開。

克萊斯勒和Jeep的東家斯特蘭蒂斯更絕，趁著工廠檢修的空當，硬是把庫存車全趕到美國境內放著。

他們家財務總監說得直白：現在倉庫里的車夠賣七八十天的。

不過也有淡定主兒。

豐田就穩坐釣魚臺，明確表示不會因為關稅傳聞就多運車。

兩家日本航運公司也說，美國那邊的訂單量很正常。

看來日本人是打定主意要看看這關稅大棒到底會不會真的砸下來。

說到運車這事，還有個插曲。

紅海那邊打打停停，搞得很多船要繞道好望角，運費自然水漲船高。

去年最高峰時，租一條運車船一天要6萬5千美元。

現在行情下來了，只要5萬出頭。

航運公司嘴上說是因為紅海可能要恢復通航，實際上誰都明白，新車運得再多也架不住新船下餃子似的下水。

今年全球運車船要增加三成多，遲早要卷成麻花。

汽車零件商也沒閑著。

有位做汽車音響的物流主管說，他們正在美國拼命囤貨。

這架勢，活像要過冬的松鼠。

倒是那些專門運車的船公司很糾結，既想多掙錢，又怕運力過剩。

有位分析師說得好：現在這行情，就像走鋼絲，左邊是紅海局勢，右邊是關稅大棒，稍不留神就會摔得鼻青臉腫。

說起來這場關稅風波最有意思的是不確定性。

誰都不知道這次加稅是雷聲大雨點小，還是動真格的。

美國國際汽車經銷商協會的老板說得實在：大家都在猜，這關稅到底要怎么收？

是每個國家都一樣，還是看人下菜碟？

那位華輪威爾森的CEO更是一語道破天機：問題不在于這次加不加稅，而在于以后會變成什么樣。

這話說到了根子上。

做生意最怕的不是明槍，而是暗箭；不是已知的困難，而是未知的變數。

說起汽車運輸這個行當，最近幾年也是過山車般的行情。

四年前一條用了十年的運車船只值3300萬美元，去年最高漲到8500萬。

現在又開始往下走，讓不少高位接盤的船東直嘬牙花子。

航運公司的分析師們吵成一團。

有人覺得中國電動車出口能撐住市場，有人擔心新船太多會把運費壓垮。

這就好比菜市場里的大媽們，有人覺得明天白菜會漲價拼命囤，有人覺得供過于求等著降價。

要我說啊，這些預測都跟算卦差不多，準不準全看運氣。

倒是那些汽車制造商學精了。

吃過幾次貿易戰的虧，現在都懂得提前布局。

該囤貨的囤貨，該轉移的轉移，活像一群機靈的兔子，聽到風聲就開始打洞。

關稅大戰打到今天，最受傷的其實是供應鏈。

就像一條精心設計的流水線，突然被人扔了把沙子進去。

車企們不得不重新規劃生產，調整運輸路線，增加庫存成本。

這些額外開支最后會轉嫁給誰？

當然是消費者。

不過話又說回來，這些車企也沒那么無辜。

當年在墨西哥建廠圖的不就是便宜嗎？

現在要加稅了才想起未雨綢繆，早干什么去了？

最新消息說，有些航運公司已經開始減少跑美國的航線了。

看來是覺得關稅大棒揮下來后，生意要不好做。

這就跟開飯館的看見城管來了趕緊收攤一個道理。

說到底啊，這場關稅鬧劇最有趣的地方在于：所有人都知道要變天，但沒人知道雨會下多大。

車企們在賭，船東們在猜，分析師們在吵。

唯獨那位說要加稅的老爺子，現在說不定正喝著咖啡看熱鬧呢。

貿易戰打到今天，倒讓我們看清楚一件事：在全球化這條船上，沒有人能真正獨善其身。